What are the prospects for global oil demand next year? Most forecasters take a bullish view of oil demand in 2004, predicting increases of around 1 mbpd, as the global economy returns to a 4% trend rate of growth after the slowdown and stagnation of the past few years. There are some dissenting voices, though. Up to half this year’s unexpectedly strong growth in oil demand was due to special factors - cold weather, high natural gas prices and nuclear plant shutdowns in Japan - which are unlikely to be repeated next year. Moreover, the economic recovery remains fragile, for it depends on the continued progress of one country - the United States. If the current US economic upturn falters, the rest of the world could face another year of slow growth, which could - at worst - scotch any possibility of significant oil demand growth in 2004...
