A cryptic entry in the oil supply –demand balance labelled ‘OPEC NGLs and other’ now provides around 6% of world oil production. This includes gas condensates, natural gas liquids (NGLs), liquefied petroleum gases (LPGs) and extra-heavy crude oil. These non-crude supplies – which are not restricted by OPEC’s output targets – have nearly doubled over the past 15 years and are set to rise sharply in the near future as more natural gas is produced, flaring is reduced and growing volumes of NGLs and gas condensates are recovered as by-products.
Since only a few OPEC countries publish timely, accurate, detailed or comprehensive statistics for this collection of fringe hydrocarbons any estimate of supply can only be approximate since it is based on partial data and inferred from project descriptions. Part of the problem is lack of clarity about what they are and where to draw the line between the oil and the natural gas markets. In some cases, the line is variable depending on how a particular hydrocarbon is used. Double-counting is also a problem, since the production of gas liquids may be reported at the well-head in some countries, after processing and separation in others, and both as a feedstock and as separated products, which can lead to confusion.
In order to make some sense of this elusive but increasingly-important component of the global supplydemand balance, the CGES collected and evaluated data from a wide variety of industry and press sources in order to derive estimates for ‘OPEC NGLs & other’ supply broken down by main category. This new study from the CGES provides a detailed analysis of the main components of ‘OPEC NGLs & other’ both in aggregate and for each OPEC member country over a 15-year period starting in 1995. CGES estimates indicate that ‘OPEC NGLs & other’ supply totalled around 4.75 mbpd in 2009. The bulk – around 70% – came from Middle East members of OPEC, with Saudi Arabia being the biggest supplier. For 2010, the CGES expects OPEC ‘NGLS and other’ supply to rise by 600,000 bpd.